Voices on the Border –
Update from El Salvador
April 10, 2003
By Geoff Herzog, El Salvador Director for Voices on the Border
1. MARCH ELECTIONS POSITION FMLN TO WIN PRESIDENCY
2. ARENA PARTY URGENTLY SEEKS CREDIBILITY BEFORE THE POPULATION
3. SOCIAL SECURITY STRIKE APPROACHING 7 MONTHS AS DOCTORS ENTER SECOND WEEK OF HUNGER STRIKE
MARCH ELECTIONS POSITION FMLN TO WIN PRESIDENCY
The March 16 elections indisputably catapulted the Farabundo Marti National Liberation front (FMLN) into the position of the biggest political force in the legislative Assembly, for the first time since its 1992 disarming, winning the greatest number of votes in Salvadoran elections. The 475,130 valid votes for the El Salvador’s left party signifies an increase by over 48,000 valid votes, some 28,000 votes more than the governing right wing ARENA party.
Vote comparison between ARENA and FMLN in Legislative Elections
Election Year 1994 1997 2000 2003
FMLN 287,811 369,709 426,289 475,130
ARENA 605,775 396,301 436,169 446,279
The FMLN continues to be the only consistently growing political party in El Salvador, and for the first time is poised to win the presidential election, which is slated for March 2004.
The new legislature, to be sworn in on May 1st will change little from the results of the 2000 elections however, due to the complicated system for designation of deputies. Only yesterday, in response to a Constitutional suit placed by the FMLN, the Supreme Court ruled article13 of the Electoral Code unconstitutional as the designation of deputies contemplated in this article violates the Constitutional precept of the equality of votes of each citizen. This ruling is not retroactive and will not effect the distribution of the 84 legislative deputies, which is broken down as follows:
Composition of 2003-2006 Legislative Assembly as Elected March 16, 2003
Party or Coalition FMLN ARENA PCN CDU PDC PDC-MR-PSD
Number of Legislators 31 27 16 5 4 1
Notes:
FMLN: Farabundo Marti National Liberation front. Former peasant-worker political-military organization legalized as political party with the signing of the 1992 peace Accords
ARENA: Nationalist Republican Alliance, formed in early 80’s by death squad leader Roberto D’Aubuisson in order to take political power from Salvadoran elite back from US puppet government of Jose Napoleon Duarte
PCN: Historic party of the military, ruled prior to 1984. Usually serves as appendage to ARENA in legislature.
CDU:Center Democratic Union founded by Rubén Zamora. Defines itself as center-left
PDC: Christian Democratic party, governed as US puppet from 1984-1989. Defines self as centrist.
MR: Renovator Movement, defines self as social democratic, founded by Facundo Guardado with others that left FMLN in 2001. Did not receive sufficient votes to continue as legal party.
PSD: Social Democratic Party. Founded by ex members of FMLN that split in 1994. Like the MR, did not receive sufficient votes to continue as legal party, ceases to exist legally.
As a whole the number of valid votes and approx. percentages won by each of the competing political parties for the legislature breaks down as follows:
Party FMLN ARENA PCN PDC CDU MR PPR PSD FC PAN AP
Votes 475,130 446,279 181,167 101,854 89,090 26,295 22,782 10,203 15,465 14,553 15,908
% 34% 32% 13% 7% 6% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Notes:
In addition to the total of 1,398,726 valid votes cast, 52,441 votes were questioned, nullified or cast as abstentions, totaling 1,451,167 votes cast of the 3,958,320 voters in the electoral registry that would have been eligible. Absenteeism then, was around 58% vs. 42 % of the registered voters that voted, this is a slight decrease in absenteeism from the past several elections.
In addition to the parties that will cease to exist explained below the prior chart, also with less than 3% of the vote, therefore losing their legality are: PPR, Popular Republican Party; FC, Christian Force; PAN, National Action Party and AP, Popular Action.
Glancing at the above chart, the skewed process in deputy selection becomes apparent. The PCN for example, with 13% of the vote will hold 16 deputies, over half of the 31 won by the FMLN with 34% of the vote.
It must also be stated here that the official results fail to address the massive fraud committed by ARENA and in some cases the PCN on election day in various municipalities as well as the technical fraud – voters being registered in the rolls to vote in other municipalities, dead people in the voter registry that still vote, changes in names or identification numbers between the registry and the voter’s voting card that prevents a voter from exercising their right to vote, etc.
Based on the anomalies it can be concluded that support for the FMLN and intention to vote for the FMLN was to some degree higher than reflected by the actual vote and that certainly the level of voting on behalf of ARENA and perhaps the PCN was to some degree inflated by fraud. A member of the electoral authorities has even recognized the fraud that occurred as well as the Oversight Board of the Political Parties which has denounced the process of the elections.
In many cases International Observers played an important role in minimizing fraud as well as clearly documenting it in order to denounce problems to the electoral authorities as well as the population in general.
This fraud no doubt impacted several municipal races in localities that the FMLN was displaced from local power while in numerous cases a deep evaluation would no doubt unveil poor leadership decisions and authoritarian styles of leadership in some departments which have failed to promote organization, including a sufficient ability to defend the vote at the tables. It is possible that the FMLN may govern slightly more of the population at the municipal level than the 62.5% it has governed in the past 3 years. Undeniably it has made gains in some departments such as La Paz, Usulutan, San Salvador, Cuscatlan and Santa Ana. Yet results in Chalatenango, Ahauchapan and La Libertad, three supposed strongholds for the FMLN, show setbacks rather than gains that the left party must analyze and seek to correct.
Problems aside, the FMLN is the clear favorite for the presidential elections next year. It is hoped that by May, a consensus late can be developed within the party to bring that consensus to ratification by the base in internal primaries. It seems most likely, however, that the primaries will be a competition among various candidates. Candidates within the left that are being considered at this time are: Shafick Handal, current head of the legislative bench and emblematic leader of the party. Recent opinion polls indicate Shafick to be a favorite with the general population of possible candidates from both the right and left. Other candidates from within the FMLN are Oscar Ortiz, the current mayor of Santa Tecla, La Libertad, Violeta Menjivar, legislative Deputy and, though not officially announced, Rene Canjura, Mayor of Nejapa since 1994 plans to seek the nomination. Names from outside of the party also being considered are the Supreme Court Justice and former Human Rights Ombudswoman Victoria Marina de Aviles, Channel 12 News Director Mauricio Funes and the former Minister of the Economy and Director of the Port Authority Economist Arturo Zablah.
For the next period, the FMLN has defined five broad objectives as a party as well as a variety of lines of work toward those objectives, which in brief are:
Objectives:
1. Remove ARENA from power.
2. Install a Government of Democratic Transition, that will put the country on the road toward structural changes
3. Establish that the FMLN is a determining force for the country
4. Maintain Political Initiative rather than reacting to events
5. Adjust the party to existing conditions
The lines of work the FMLN has defined toward those objectives, include strong contact with the population through continuing local house to house visits, supporting social struggles, mobilizing the base of the party, a strengthening of local base committees of the FMLN, strengthening its work of alliances and work at the international level with solidarity as well as governments and preparing as of now for the defense of the vote in the coming 2004 presidential elections.
ARENA PARTY URGENTLY SEEKS CREDIBILITY BEFORE THE POPULATION
The ARENA Party has entered into crisis in the wake of the results of the March 16 elections. Just days after the election ARENA President and head of Banco Agricola Comercial resigned from the top party post. Within days, criticisms from within the party began, with the professional sector as well as ex President of the Republic Armando Calderon Sol, placing the blame at the door step of the Presidential House. Calderon along with the other ex-President, Alfredo Cristiani than began a national poll of ARENA Party members, the results of which will be presented to an extraordinary Assembly of the right wing party slated for this coming Sunday. In the wake of the election results and this evaluation process some measures have already been taken.
Firstly, the full leadership of the party has resigned and allegedly a new leadership will be, for the first time, elected by the party base at the coming ARENA Assembly. It is hard to imagine that out of the blue, the party of the elite will carry out a process that even vaguely resembles participation by their base. More likely a cosmetic makeover is under way that in all probability will provoke more defections from the ARENA rank and file due to disillusionment wand frustration with promises of democracy.
Secondly, criticisms of the President have continued from other sectors of the party. This has led some to speculate that Flores has differed for some time with powerful sectors in the party. Others are more skeptical, such as this writer, believing that the real decision makers in the party are seeking merely to place the blame on President Flores Peres. In either case, historic party figures including ex President Alfredo Cristiani has accused the President of ignoring the social component of neo-liberalism and only focusing on the macroeconomic growth component.
For his part Flores has already made cosmetic adjustments, stating that the message of the people on March 16 has been heard and has begun a new propaganda campaign “Governing for the People” focused on a series of promises to improve the family economy. Those measures and some of the problems with them are:
1) Access to loans with no interests or payments due to the coffee sector of the economy for two years. This proposal in practice, only addresses one part of agriculture and additionally, after two years, interests and principal payments will begin to be charged, resulting in little substantial improvement for coffee producers. Nor does it address the renewed threat of starvation in coffee zones that has been recognized by the World Food Program of the United Nations.
2) Measures to reform the electrical system in order to lower prices. The actual measures laid out deal with strengthening the Superintendent of electricity in being able to fine companies but does nothing to increase the subsidy only given to the smallest consumers and do not touch the profit levels of the companies. While stating that bills will drop by June, something that always happens in the rainy season due to hydroelectric generation running more optimally, another measure is to renew commitment to the construction of two new hydro-electric dams on the Torola River, a project adamantly opposed by local inhabitants of Northern San Miguel and Morazan due to environmental impact and the threat to life and property they foresee based on the experiences of communities in the lower lempa region.
3) Increasing the lowest pensions by 35%. This does not address the 100,000 pensioners with miserable pensions and neither does it propose to impact the profits of the pension system but rather give state funds to the pension companies from which the companies would increase payments to the lowest paid pensioners.
4) Review the minimum wage. The government has the power as one of three parts on the Council for the minimum wage (Government, labor and businesses) to side with labor against government in order to make the increase happen, this is not being proposed per se by Flores.
These promises and the high cost of maintaining the demands of the PCN in the Assembly may open the door, however for ARENA to negotiate with the FMLN and allow certain legislature on behalf of the population to be approved. The first test of this is playing out in these days around the healthcare strike which is currently approaching 7 months of duration.
SOCIAL SECURITY STRIKE APPROACHING 7 MONTHS AS DOCTORS ENTER SECOND WEEK OF HUNGER STRIKE
As the strike by workers and doctors of the Salvadoran Social Security Institute approaches 7 months, doctors and supporting activists have entered their eight day of hunger strike in order to escalate pressure on the government to resolve the strike by stopping the privatization of healthcare and allowing all doctors and workers on strike to return to work while also receiving pay for the past months. Yesterday, social organizations supporting the strike briefly shut down traffic on several major highways around San Salvador before riot police attacked the protests, arresting 15 demonstrators, mostly on the Northern exit from San Salvador on the Troncal highway. Solidarity protest escalated yesterday as well in the National Hospital System with the start of an indefinite stoppage at Rosales Hospital and 48 hour stoppages in various other hospitals. Today, for the second time in two weeks, a sit in is occurring on the Juan Pablo II Avenue, where the Surgical Medical Hospital of the Social Security Institute is located. It is at this hospital that the hunger striking doctors have been based for 24 hours a day and a constant vigil of supporters has been maintained since the hunger strike began over a week ago.
It is possible that a legislative resolution to the strike could be brought about this very day, in the final plenary of the Legislative Assembly before breaking for Easter. Two weeks ago, for its part the FMLN attempted to negotiate support that the PCN continue in the Presidency of the Legislative Assembly in exchange for an immediate end to the health strike as well as support to the FMLN to head up a series of key legislative commissions. Nevertheless, the PCN has placed legalese justifications as obstacles to supporting proposed legislation in the Commission on Health and the Environment of the legislature. Yet in the past days, as ARENA needs to demonstrate a shift toward the population in the hopes to maintain the Executive in the coming elections, it has entered into talks with the FMLN as well as talks between the ARENA legislators and the strikers. As of this morning the main sticking point appeared to remain around the 274 posts that have been filled by non-union personnel and their re-substitution by striking workers. Hope continues that resolution will be reached in this session of the Assembly, otherwise the health situation of some of the hunger strikers will undoubtedly worsen in the next days with the week long Easter break fro the legislature effectively beginning tomorrow, Friday.
In related news of protests, on April 3 some 20,000 Salvadorans marched against the US war in Iraq and against the CAFTA (Central America Free Trade Agreement with the US). The March occurred in the midst of a negotiation round at the Princess Hotel located in the Zona Rosa area of uptown San Salvador. While the protest did not approach the size of the series of marches around the health strike of between 60-100,000 people on different occasions, in past months, it was an important preliminary march to the coming May Day demonstration, in which it can be expected that tens of thousands will participate.
